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QUOTE OF THE WEEK:
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By Ken Abramowitz
Threat Analyst Ken Abramowitz is author of “The Multifront War”
Editor: Dr. Rachel Ehrenfeld, President, American Center for Democracy (ACD)
Israel’s dramatic fierceness in recent weeks has changed the dynamics of the first Iran/Israel war, which could lead to WW3. However, one could argue that World War III began on October 7, 2023, with Iran’s proxy Hamas invading southern Israel, brutally murdering 1,200 Israelis, and taking more than 250 hostages.
What has motivated Israel’s extra forcefulness now? Several factors are involved:
1) Israel cannot sustain a war of attrition. Its army is primarily composed of reserves aged 22-45. They are patriotic and willing to fight, but they also have families, jobs, and businesses to manage. Therefore, the war, which has already lasted 12 months, needs to end within the next 6-12 months.
2) Because of Hezbollah’s constant firing more than 8,500 rockets since October 8, 2023, some 70,000 residents of northern Israel have become refugees in their own country.
3) The land war in Lebanon needs to end before that country’s bitter winter arrives in three months.
4) The American election period ends in about four weeks on November 5th, and it is thought that neither party can afford to criticize Israel very much or deny a weapons re-supply, which is needed for Israel to keep the upper hand.
5) During this year-long war of attrition, Israel’s Air Force has succeeded in eliminating 90% of the top Hezbollah leadership and perhaps 50% of the 150,000 missiles pointed at Israel.
6) The IDF thinks that the time is right to invade southern Lebanon and destroy the sophisticated tunnel network that Hezbollah has built and weaponized to attack Israel (as Hamas has done in Gaza).
7) The Israeli Air Force blew up oil facilities, weapons, and ports controlled by the Houthis in Yemen, which the U.S military should have done long ago.
What is likely to happen next?
Since there is no diplomatic solution, one expects Iran’s Death Cult, with hundreds of thousands of terrorists outside of Iran, to be fully activated. They will not stop until defeated. Israel (and the West) are now marching on to victory with the active support of the US military, but with the grudging help of the US political system.
1) In Gaza, the war is 80% complete, and the remaining terrorist leaders and 7,500 foot-soldiers will be killed or captured. All the remaining 100 Israeli and other hostages will be found; hopefully, more than 25% will be alive. Northern Gaza Arabs will be pressured to move south, not to ever return to the north of Gaza.
2) In Lebanon, the war is being won, but it is not over. Most remaining missile silos will be blown up, though some 20% could be shot into Israel, 95% of which will be intercepted by Israel’s missile defense system. Southern Lebanon will be cleaned out of Hezbollah terrorists. The civilian population will escape north unharmed but should not allowed to return.
3) In Yemen, the ability of the Houthis to obstruct maritime traffic through the Suez Canal must end immediately. This should be done by the US Navy, though Israel can and will certainly help, as it is doing right now.
4) In Judea-Samaria, the IDF has arrested about 5,000 Hamas and other terrorists and killed about 1,000. The IDF will find the remaining 1,000 terrorists within six months.
5) In Syria/Iraq, there are over 100,000 Shiite terrorists. The IDF should bomb them continuously if they try to approach Israel’s northern border.
6) In Iran, the key nuclear sites should be blown up by the U.S. military. If the U.S. military refuses to do so and refuses to protect America from the existential threat of an Iranian nuclear attack, Israel will have to do so, saving itself, America, Europe, and the Arab Sunni Muslims. Strictly enforced snapped-back sanctions should lead to Iran’s bankruptcy within 6-9 months. This could lead to Regime Change, because 80% of the population want to live in a free society and would likely rise against the corrupted 20% who believe in or financially benefit from the Mullahs and the Iran Revolutionary Guard Corp (IRGC).
None of these efforts will be easy, but they are unavoidable now. Within the next year, Israel will emerge as the undisputed leading power in the Middle East, and the United States will regain its position as the leader of the Free World.
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Happy Jewish New Year to all!
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